WHAT ARE CHANCES THAT KADAGA HAS TO STAND AND TAKE THE 'BIG SEAT' IN 2016?

The debate for kadaga to run for presidency in 2016 has taken another unprecedented step as a group of youth from Busoga- her home area has taken a bold step in trying to draw her into contesting. In the last weeks, “Kadaga; Uganda’s Angela Merkel” (KUAM), has been and is still collecting signatures, which they plan to use and tame her to run for president. They hope to raise one million signature of voter which will be used to tame her to stand.

Kadaga is a politician who never fought NRA war to liberate Uganda. She joined politics in 1989, rose slowly- slowly until 2011 when she was elected as speaker of the 9^th parliament. She held the office of deputy speaker in the 8^th parliament (2006-2011).

She will be riding on domestic popularity from both elites and ordinary Ugandans. A section of MPs have openly called her to stand for presidency due to her impartiality while handling critical debates in parliament. Amazingly when quizzed by Chris Obore on K-FM Hard Talk late last year, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mr Jacob Oulanyah, said that he is being used by his boss, Ms Rebecca Kadaga, to oversee the passing of controversial laws such as Petroleum (Exploration, Development and Production) Bill, 2012. However Kadaga have presided over contriversial bill such as Marriage and Divorce Bill, passing of Anti-homosexuality bill, Sejusa saga, approval of Aronda Nyakirima as minister for internal affairs, rebel MPs expulsion by NRM executive committee among others.

Riding on success of women in world politics

Increasing number of women in world politics will also be an advantage for Kadaga. From Africa to Europe, North and South America, female leaders seem to be doing better than men as far management is concerned.

Recently Catherine Samba-Panza was elected as the interim president of the Central African Republic (CAR) after President Michel Djotodia and his Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye were forced to resign on 10^th January this month. They were criticized for their inability to end the violence between Muslims and Christians that plunged the country into security and humanitarian chaos. Djatodia led Seleka Alliance, a rebel group which ousted President Francois Bozize in March 2013.

In October 2012, Malawi president Joyce Banda slashed her salary by 30% as part of her government’s commitment to reduce public expenditure. Banda too sold the controversial presidential jet. The purchase of the jet in 2009 by Mutharika had angered donors. She came to power in April 2012 following the death of President Bingu wa Mutharika.

In Rwanda, women continue to dominate parliament. During September 2013 parliamentary elections, women won 51 seats out of 81 members of the lower house. This increased their presence from 56% to 64% which they first won in 2008 polls.

Beyond Africa, Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled German since 2005, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has ruled Argentina since 2007, President Dilma Rousseff has ruled Brazil since 2011, Prime Minister Julia Gillard of Australia has ruled since 2010, etc.

Battling the ‘indomitable’ Museveni

  If Kadaga decide to stand with in the NRM, she will face president Museveni during primaries in addition to former president Gilbert Bukenya who has publicly declared his intention to challenge his boss in 2016. This will be her toughest decision since joining politics. In my opinion, none of them will succeed in showing president Museveni exit route. Museveni will use all means available whether rigging or bribing voters to emerge as NRM flag bearer. Since 2006, when multi-party politics were endorsed in Uganda, no one has ever challenged Museveni who is the founder and ‘spiritual’ leader of the party.

Kadaga will also face a bitter Museveni if she decides to challenge him as he has imprisoned his opponents such as to Gilbert Bukenya recently and his arch political enemy Kizza Besigye who has been imprisoned many times than any other Ugandan. Whereas Kadaga is a honest politician, many people would think that it is impossible to cage her, think about Besigye, he was also honest.

Hostile western world

She will too face the wrath of western countries which she has accused of trying to support homosexuality in Uganda. Kadaga cannot financially fund campaigns alone which means she will turn to western world for support. The question is, how can she convince them to support her?